Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
0.49xG
-0.21AFC xGD
xG0.70
Expected points 1.57–1.57
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Kilmarnock generated more attacking volume — 11 shots and 17 box touches to Aberdeen's 10 and 28.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.57 – 1.57
From the full xG (0.49–0.70), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.57 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.49–0.70). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityOPPONENT EDGE
0.49 – 0.70
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.05 – 0.06
xG per shot
10 – 11
shots
Kilmarnock created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionABERDEEN EDGE
—
Expected threat created
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
62% – 38%
field tilt
59 – 76
final-third entries
Aberdeen controlled the territory and pushed play into Kilmarnock's half.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.70 xGA
chances conceded
0.86 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
17 (base 26)
Kilmarnock box touches
0.06
xG per Kilmarnock shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.50Kilmarnock 0.70GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
22%
42%
37%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Kilmarnock Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
11 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Kilmarnock 11
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
38.4%
61.6%
Own Half
Opp Half
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
84.0%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
25avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
85.3%avg 86.0%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Big chances | 3 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Touches in box | 30 | 21.6 | 19 |
| Possession % | 42 | 48.1 | 58 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Kilmarnock.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Kilmarnock at Home — every meeting on record
6-1-1(8 games)
1.89–0.74avg xG (n=7)
DWWWLWWW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.50avg 1.21
4th worst of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
0.71avg 1.58
6th best of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
41%avg 48%
10th worst of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
10.0avg 11.3
18th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
4.0avg 3.4
11th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
2.0avg 1.7
12th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
28.0avg 21.4
9th best of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
59.0avg 55.3
15th best of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
7.0avg 8.2
18th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
6.0avg 4.6
6th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
15.0avg 15.8
19th worst of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
8.0avg 8.5
16th best of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LDLLW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match