Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
0.49xG
-0.21AFC xGD
xG0.70
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.7G. Molloy
G. Molloy ran the show — a 7.7 rating.
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage — 1 goal from set pieces (0.29 set-piece xG).
Defence locked down
0.70xGA · 1.56 avg
The back line gave almost nothing away — 0.70 xGA against a season average of 1.56.
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 1.58 · +1.42
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?14% luck · mostly down to skill
About 14% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.47Kilmarnock 0.56GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
10 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (0.49 xG to 0.70). Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.49
0.70
1.19
Shots
10
11
11
Shots on target
4
3
3
Big chances
2
0
2
Box touches
28
17
22
xG per shot
0.05
0.06
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
41%
59%
48%
Field tilt
62%
38%
51%
Progressive passes
—
—
46
Final-third entries
59
76
55
xT (threat created)
—
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.70 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.70
0.49
1.56
PPDA
14.8
—
14.3
High regains
—
—
5
Tackles
15
—
16
Interceptions
8
—
9
Opp. box touches
17
28
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LDLLW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)