Aberdeen
0–1
FT · Loss
Falkirk
0.96xG
-0.30AFC xGD
xG1.26
Expected points 0.73–1.58
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Aggressive pressure
8high regains · 5 avg
A ferocious counter-press — 8 ball recoveries in the final third against a season average of 5.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?50% luck · part luck, part skill
About 50% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.96Falkirk 1.26GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
12 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (0.96 xG to 1.26).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.96
1.26
1.19
Shots
12
19
11
Shots on target
4
9
3
Big chances
1
1
2
Box touches
23
29
22
xG per shot
0.08
0.07
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
38%
62%
48%
Field tilt
56%
44%
51%
Progressive passes
34
—
46
Final-third entries
55
60
55
xT (threat created)
1.76
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 1.26 xGA, below the season average. High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.26
0.96
1.56
PPDA
14.1
—
14.3
High regains
8
—
5
Tackles
19
—
16
Interceptions
4
—
9
Opp. box touches
29
23
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LL(last 2)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)