Aberdeen
0–1
FT · Loss
Falkirk
0.96xG
-0.30AFC xGD
xG1.26
Expected points 0.72–1.57
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A harsh defeat on the balance of chances.
Falkirk generated more attacking volume — 19 shots and 29 box touches to Aberdeen's 12 and 23. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.08 xG per shot to 0.07, and the bigger ones (1–1 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.72 – 1.57
From the full xG (0.96–1.26), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.72 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.96–1.26). Took 0.
Some misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityOPPONENT EDGE
0.96 – 1.26
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Falkirk
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.08 – 0.07
xG per shot
12 – 19
shots
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.08 xG per shot to 0.07.
Territory & progressionSLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
1.76 – 2.74
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Falkirk
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
56% – 44%
field tilt
55 – 60
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceMIXED
1.26 xGA
chances conceded
0.30 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
29 (base 26)
Falkirk box touches
0.07
xG per Falkirk shot
Falkirk accessed Aberdeen's box too easily, but most of their shots were low quality.
ShapeAberdeen started 4-2-3-1 and changed to 4-4-2 on 48’. Falkirk stayed in 4-2-3-1 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.96Falkirk 1.26GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
27%
30%
43%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Falkirk Shot Map
1 goal: 1 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
19 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Falkirk 19
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 12 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | about normal · 100 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 100 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 9 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | about normal · 120 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 120 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
44.4%
31.7%
23.9%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
63.2%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
38avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
80.0%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
34avg 49
Directness
57.9%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 244 | 376.8 | 392.4 | bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Dec 2025 · 16 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Dec 2025 · 16 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 68.4 | 75.4 | 72.2 | below usual · 49 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 49 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 19 | 27.2 | 25.2 | below usual · 49 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 49 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 49 | 53.2 | 57.8 | below usual · 45 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 45 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 20.1 | 14.4 | 15.6 | above usual · 158 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 158 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Falkirk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.96 | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| Big chances | 1 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Touches in box | 23 | 21.6 | 29 |
| Possession % | 38 | 48.1 | 62 |
Aberdeen's best work came before half time — 0.91 xG to 0.05 after.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Falkirk.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Falkirk at Home — every meeting on record
0-1-0(1 game)
1.54–0.76avg xG
D
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.96avg 1.20
18th worst of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
1.26avg 1.57
17th best of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
38%avg 48%
8th worst of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
12.0avg 11.2
14th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
4.0avg 3.4
11th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
1.0avg 1.8
19th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
23.0avg 21.5
14th best of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
55.0avg 55.4
19th worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
10.0avg 8.1
11th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
5.0avg 4.7
14th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
19.0avg 15.7
7th best of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
4.0avg 8.6
7th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
17.9avg 15.0
7th worst of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
6%avg 5%
11th best of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LL(last 2)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match