Dundee FC
1–3
FT · Win
Aberdeen
1.12xG
+0.25AFC xGD
xG1.38
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
9.0A. Aouchiche
A. Aouchiche ran the show — a 9.0 rating with 2 goals.
Fast start
2 goals16'–30'
Aberdeen put the game to bed early — 2 goals between the 16th and 30th minute.
Clinical finishing
3 from 1.38goals from xG
The finishing ran hot — 3 scored from 1.38 xG worth of chances.
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 1.58 · +1.42
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?31% luck · part luck, part skill
About 31% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.37Dundee FC 1.12GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
21 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.38 xG to 1.12).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.38
1.12
1.19
Shots
21
15
11
Shots on target
8
2
3
Big chances
1
1
2
Box touches
24
23
22
xG per shot
0.07
0.07
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
46%
54%
48%
Field tilt
57%
43%
51%
Progressive passes
45
—
46
Final-third entries
61
62
55
xT (threat created)
2.22
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 1.12 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.12
1.38
1.56
PPDA
14.5
—
14.3
High regains
2
—
5
Tackles
16
—
16
Interceptions
8
—
9
Opp. box touches
23
24
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
21shots
1st of 38 · season best
8shots on target
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:WDWWD(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)