Kilmarnock
0–1
FT · Win
Aberdeen
1.36xG
-0.81AFC xGD
xG0.55
Expected points 2.29–0.72
Fortunate winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Kilmarnock generated more attacking volume — 14 shots and 28 box touches to Aberdeen's 6 and 8.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.72 – 2.29
From the full xG (0.55–1.36), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.72 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.55–1.36). Took 3.
Extreme fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.55 – 1.36
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.09 – 0.10
xG per shot
6 – 14
shots
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.00 – 3.86
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
47% – 53%
field tilt
59 – 66
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceEVEN
1.36 xGA
chances conceded
0.20 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
28 (base 26)
Kilmarnock box touches
0.10
xG per Kilmarnock shot
A middling defensive night by Aberdeen's standards.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-3 and stayed in it for the whole match. Kilmarnock stayed in 3-5-2 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.55Kilmarnock 1.36GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
14%
28%
58%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Kilmarnock Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
14 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Kilmarnock 14
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 6 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | bottom 10% — fewest since @ Hearts, Feb 2026 · 14 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since @ Hearts, Feb 2026 · 14 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | bottom 10% — fewest since @ St. Mirren, Aug 2023 · 5 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since @ St. Mirren, Aug 2023 · 5 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
52.6%
29.4%
18.0%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
59.6%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
47avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
87.0%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
31avg 49
Directness
54.1%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 343 | 376.8 | 392.4 | about normal · 64 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 64 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 72.3 | 75.4 | 72.2 | about normal · 86 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 86 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 20 | 27.2 | 25.2 | about normal · 60 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 60 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 71 | 53.2 | 57.8 | above usual · 160 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 160 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 20.7 | 14.4 | 15.6 | above usual · 161 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 161 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.61 | 1.17 | 1.36 |
| Big chances | 1 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Touches in box | 8 | 21.6 | 28 |
| Possession % | 43 | 48.1 | 57 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Kilmarnock.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
At Kilmarnock — every meeting on record
1-0-5(6 games)
0.54–2.45avg xG (n=5)
LLLLLW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.55avg 1.21
8th worst of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
1.36avg 1.57
19th best of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
43%avg 48%
14th worst of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
6.0avg 11.4
6th worst of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
3.0avg 3.4
18th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
1.0avg 1.8
19th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
8.0avg 21.9
2nd worst of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
59.0avg 55.3
15th best of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
4.0avg 8.3
5th worst of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
2.0avg 4.8
6th worst of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
12.0avg 15.9
10th worst of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
7.0avg 8.5
19th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
16.3avg 15.1
11th worst of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
3%avg 6%
7th worst of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
8box touches
37th of 38 · among the worst
Form:LLWWL(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match