Kilmarnock
0–1
FT · Win
Aberdeen
1.36xG
-0.81AFC xGD
xG0.55
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Fortunate winMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.7D. Mitov
D. Mitov ran the show — a 7.7 rating.
Second best on chances
0.55–1.36xG for–against
The opposition created more — 1.36 xG against Aberdeen's 0.55.
Result verdict
Very fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 0.73 · +2.27
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?3% luck · mostly down to skill
About 3% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.55Kilmarnock 1.36GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
6 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.36 xG to Aberdeen's 0.55. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.55
1.36
1.19
Shots
6
14
11
Shots on target
3
4
3
Big chances
1
2
2
Box touches
8
28
22
xG per shot
0.09
0.10
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
43%
57%
48%
Field tilt
47%
53%
51%
Progressive passes
31
—
46
Final-third entries
59
66
55
xT (threat created)
1.00
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.36 xGA).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.36
0.55
1.56
PPDA
22.6
—
14.3
High regains
2
—
5
Tackles
12
—
16
Interceptions
7
—
9
Opp. box touches
28
8
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
8box touches
37th of 38 · among the worst
Form:LLWWL(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)