Livingston
0–1
FT · Win
Aberdeen
0.99xG
-0.23AFC xGD
xG0.76
Expected points 1.57–1.57
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Livingston generated more attacking volume — 15 shots and 29 box touches to Aberdeen's 14 and 13.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.57 – 1.57
From the full xG (0.76–0.99), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.57 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.76–0.99). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityOPPONENT EDGE
0.76 – 0.99
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Livingston
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.05 – 0.07
xG per shot
14 – 15
shots
Livingston created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.89 – 1.95
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Livingston
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
53% – 47%
field tilt
65 – 63
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceMIXED
0.99 xGA
chances conceded
0.57 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
29 (base 26)
Livingston box touches
0.07
xG per Livingston shot
Livingston accessed Aberdeen's box too easily, but most of their shots were low quality.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-2-1 and stayed in it for the whole match. Livingston stayed in 4-2-3-1 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.76Livingston 0.99GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
26%
33%
41%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Livingston Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
15 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Livingston 15
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 14 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | about normal · 119 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 119 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 7 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | about normal · 75 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 75 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
47.3%
34.1%
18.6%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
74.1%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
27avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
80.6%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
51avg 49
Directness
54.6%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 330 | 376.8 | 392.4 | below usual · 55 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 55 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 70.3 | 75.4 | 72.2 | about normal · 66 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 66 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 31 | 27.2 | 25.2 | above usual · 137 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 137 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 42 | 53.2 | 57.8 | bottom 10% — fewest since vs Rangers, Aug 2026 · 15 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since vs Rangers, Aug 2026 · 15 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 12.7 | 14.4 | 15.6 | below usual · 53 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 53 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Livingston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.76 | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| Big chances | 1 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Touches in box | 13 | 21.6 | 29 |
| Possession % | 44 | 48.1 | 56 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Livingston.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
At Livingston — every meeting on record
2-4-2(8 games)
1.21–1.12avg xG (n=6)
DDDLLWWD
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.76avg 1.20
14th worst of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
0.99avg 1.58
11th best of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
44%avg 48%
17th worst of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
14.0avg 11.2
12th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
4.0avg 3.4
11th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
1.0avg 1.8
19th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
13.0avg 21.8
5th worst of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
65.0avg 55.1
11th best of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
11.0avg 8.1
9th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
4.0avg 4.7
17th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
22.0avg 15.6
5th best of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
5.0avg 8.6
10th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
13.7avg 15.2
14th best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
9%avg 5%
5th best of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:WLWDW(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match