Aberdeen
3–3
FT · Draw
St. Mirren
2.08xG
+0.25AFC xGD
xG1.83
Expected points 1.57–1.57
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
Two points dropped on the chances created.
The penalty stretched the headline xG (2.08–1.83) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 2.08–1.04.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.57 – 1.57
From the full xG (2.08–1.83), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.29 pts
From non-penalty xG (2.08–1.04). Took 1.
Some misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
2.08 – 1.83
Expected goals · Aberdeen – St. Mirren
AFC xG baseline: 1.19 · non-penalty 2.08–1.04
0.12 – 0.12
xG per shot
18 – 15
shots
Chance quality was broadly even between the sides.
Territory & progressionSLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
1.93 – 2.19
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – St. Mirren
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
54% – 47%
field tilt
70 – 50
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceMIXED
1.83 xGA
chances conceded
0.27 worse than AFC baseline (1.56)
24 (base 26)
St. Mirren box touches
0.12
xG per St. Mirren shot
A middling defensive night by Aberdeen's standards.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-2-1 and stayed in it for the whole match. St. Mirren started 3-5-2, then 3-4-3 on 80’.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 2.08St. Mirren 1.83GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
43%
24%
33%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
St. Mirren Shot Map
3 goals: 2 open play, 1 pen
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
15 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0St. Mirren 15
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 18 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | above usual · 158 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 158 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 13 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | above usual · 165 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 165 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
46.5%
30.4%
23.1%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
37.5%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
24avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
90.0%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
55avg 49
Directness
58.7%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 472 | 376.8 | 392.4 | above usual · 145 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 145 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 81.1 | 75.4 | 72.2 | above usual · 170 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 170 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 35 | 27.2 | 25.2 | above usual · 158 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 158 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 52 | 53.2 | 57.8 | about normal · 62 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 62 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 11 | 14.4 | 15.6 | below usual · 24 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 24 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | St. Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 2.12 | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Big chances | 4 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Touches in box | 27 | 21.6 | 24 |
| Possession % | 67 | 48.1 | 33 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with St. Mirren.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs St. Mirren at Home — every meeting on record
4-2-4(10 games)
1.77–1.39avg xG (n=9)
LLWLWLWDWD
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
2.08avg 1.17
5th best of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
1.83avg 1.55
13th worst of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
67%avg 48%
3rd best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
18.0avg 11.1
4th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
8.0avg 3.3
2nd best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
4.0avg 1.7
3rd best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
27.0avg 21.4
11th best of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
70.0avg 55.0
9th best of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
13.0avg 8.0
5th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
8.0avg 4.6
4th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
15.0avg 15.8
19th worst of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
3.0avg 8.6
4th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
14.5avg 15.1
17th best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
5%avg 5%
16th worst of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
8shots on target
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
9high regains
2nd of 33 · 2nd best
4big chances
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LWDWW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match