Aberdeen
3–3
FT · Draw
St. Mirren
2.08xG
+0.25AFC xGD
xG1.83
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
8.2D. Polvara
D. Polvara ran the show — a 8.2 rating with 1 goal.
Controlled the ball
67%possession · 48% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball — 67% possession against a 48% season average.
Second-half surge
3 goalsafter the break
Aberdeen took over after half-time — 3 of the goals came in the second half.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 1 pt · expected 1.58 · -0.58
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?37% luck · part luck, part skill
About 37% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 2.07St. Mirren 1.83GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
18 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (2.08 xG to 1.83). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
2.08
1.83
1.19
Shots
18
15
11
Shots on target
8
4
3
Big chances
4
2
2
Box touches
27
24
22
xG per shot
0.12
0.12
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
67%
33%
48%
Field tilt
54%
47%
51%
Progressive passes
55
—
46
Final-third entries
70
50
55
xT (threat created)
1.93
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.83 xGA). The press was aggressive (PPDA 10.9).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.83
2.08
1.56
PPDA
10.9
—
14.3
High regains
9
—
5
Tackles
15
—
16
Interceptions
3
—
9
Opp. box touches
24
27
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
8shots on target
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
9high regains
2nd of 33 · 2nd best
4big chances
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LWDWW(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)