Falkirk
1–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.53xG
-0.96AFC xGD
xG0.57
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.6D. Mitov
D. Mitov ran the show — a 7.6 rating.
Second best on chances
0.57–1.53xG for–against
The opposition created more — 1.53 xG against Aberdeen's 0.57.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?0% luck · mostly down to skill
About 0% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.57Falkirk 1.53GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
7 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.53 xG to Aberdeen's 0.57. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.57
1.53
1.19
Shots
7
21
11
Shots on target
0
7
3
Big chances
0
1
2
Box touches
19
32
22
xG per shot
0.08
0.07
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
44%
56%
48%
Field tilt
45%
55%
51%
Progressive passes
36
—
46
Final-third entries
41
77
55
xT (threat created)
2.25
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.53 xGA).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.53
0.57
1.56
PPDA
16.4
—
14.3
High regains
5
—
5
Tackles
18
—
16
Interceptions
3
—
9
Opp. box touches
32
19
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0shots on target
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:WWLDL(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)