Aberdeen
0–2
FT · Loss
Rangers
0.32xG
-1.63AFC xGD
xG1.94
Expected points 0.19–2.44
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A harsh defeat on the balance of chances.
Rangers generated more attacking volume — 18 shots and 21 box touches to Aberdeen's 7 and 17. The penalty stretched the headline xG (0.32–1.94) well beyond the non-penalty picture, which was almost level at 0.32–1.16.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.19 – 2.44
From the full xG (0.32–1.94), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.72 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.32–1.16). Took 0.
Some misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.32 – 1.94
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Rangers
AFC xG baseline: 1.19 · non-penalty 0.32–1.16
0.05 – 0.11
xG per shot
7 – 18
shots
Rangers created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionOPPONENT EDGE
1.23 – 1.97
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Rangers
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
42% – 58%
field tilt
42 – 57
final-third entries
Rangers had the better of the territorial battle.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
1.94 xGA
chances conceded
0.38 worse than AFC baseline (1.56)
21 (base 26)
Rangers box touches
0.11
xG per Rangers shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
ShapeAberdeen started 4-1-4-1 and stayed in it for the whole match. Rangers started 4-2-3-1, then 5-4-1 on 91’.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.32Rangers 1.94GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
13%
84%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Rangers Shot Map
2 goals: 1 open play, 1 pen
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
18 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Rangers 18
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 7 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | below usual · 25 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 25 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 5 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | below usual · 36 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 36 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
58.0%
33.5%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
30.4%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
23avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
91.3%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
36avg 49
Directness
59.6%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 382 | 376.8 | 392.4 | about normal · 89 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 89 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 79.3 | 75.4 | 72.2 | above usual · 152 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 152 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 22 | 27.2 | 25.2 | about normal · 78 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 78 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 39 | 53.2 | 57.8 | bottom 10% — fewest since vs Rangers, Aug 2026 · 7 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since vs Rangers, Aug 2026 · 7 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 10.2 | 14.4 | 15.6 | bottom 10% — fewest since vs Kilmarnock, Sept 2026 · 16 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since vs Kilmarnock, Sept 2026 · 16 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.32 | 1.17 | 1.94 |
| Big chances | 0 | 1.8 | 5 |
| Touches in box | 17 | 21.6 | 21 |
| Possession % | 52 | 48.1 | 48 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Rangers.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Rangers at Home — every meeting on record
2-3-3(8 games)
1.31–1.76avg xG (n=7)
LDWDWLDL
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.32avg 1.21
worst of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.39, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
xGA
1.94avg 1.55
11th worst of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
52%avg 48%
14th best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
7.0avg 11.4
10th worst of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
5.0avg 3.4
7th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
0.0avg 1.8
7th worst of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
17.0avg 21.7
11th worst of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
42.0avg 55.8
8th worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
5.0avg 8.2
14th worst of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
6.0avg 4.6
6th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
26.0avg 15.5
2nd best of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
7.0avg 8.5
19th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
9.3avg 15.3
best of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 10.0, 15 February 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
5%avg 5%
12th worst of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.32xG
38th of 38 · season worst
Form:LDLLL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match