Aberdeen
1–1
FT · Draw
Falkirk
1.54xG
+0.79AFC xGD
xG0.76
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Defence locked down
0.76xGA · 1.56 avg
The back line gave almost nothing away — 0.76 xGA against a season average of 1.56.
Result verdict
Unfortunate
Took 1 pt · expected 2.26 · -1.26
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?70% luck · mostly luck
About 70% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.41Falkirk 0.56GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
9 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 1.54 xG to 0.76, and the bigger ones (3–2 big chances).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.54
0.76
1.19
Shots
9
7
11
Shots on target
3
3
3
Big chances
3
2
2
Box touches
16
27
22
xG per shot
0.17
0.11
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
42%
58%
48%
Field tilt
63%
37%
51%
Progressive passes
48
—
46
Final-third entries
85
68
55
xT (threat created)
2.06
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.76 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.76
1.54
1.56
PPDA
13.7
—
14.3
High regains
6
—
5
Tackles
15
—
16
Interceptions
14
—
9
Opp. box touches
27
16
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LLDLL(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)