St. Mirren
0–1
FT · Win
Aberdeen
0.48xG
+1.56AFC xGD
xG2.05
Expected points 0.20–2.44
DominantMatch in 30 seconds
Chance dominance
2.05–0.48xG for–against
Aberdeen created the far better chances — 2.05 xG to 0.48.
Standout performer
7.6N. Devlin
N. Devlin ran the show — a 7.6 rating.
Moved it forward
65progressive passes · 46 avg
Sharp forward play — 65 progressive passes against a season average of 46.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.44 · +0.56
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?11% luck · mostly down to skill
About 11% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 2.05St. Mirren 0.48GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
16 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 2.05 xG to 0.48, and the bigger ones (3–0 big chances). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
2.05
0.48
1.19
Shots
16
10
11
Shots on target
4
1
3
Big chances
3
0
2
Box touches
31
25
22
xG per shot
0.13
0.05
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
51%
49%
48%
Field tilt
42%
58%
51%
Progressive passes
65
—
46
Final-third entries
44
71
55
xT (threat created)
2.37
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.48 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.48
2.05
1.56
PPDA
16.5
—
14.3
High regains
3
—
5
Tackles
9
—
16
Interceptions
9
—
9
Opp. box touches
25
31
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.48xGA
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LDLLW(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)