St. Mirren
0–1
FT · Win
Aberdeen
0.48xG
+1.56AFC xGD
xG2.05
Expected points 0.19–2.44
DominantThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.13 xG per shot to 0.05, and the bigger ones (3–0 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 2.44 – 0.19
From the full xG (2.05–0.48), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 2.44 pts
From non-penalty xG (2.05–0.48). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
2.05 – 0.48
Expected goals · Aberdeen – St. Mirren
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.13 – 0.05
xG per shot
16 – 10
shots
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.13 xG per shot to 0.05.
Territory & progressionOPPONENT EDGE
2.37 – 2.10
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – St. Mirren
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
42% – 58%
field tilt
44 – 71
final-third entries
St. Mirren had the better of the territorial battle.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.48 xGA
chances conceded
1.08 better than AFC baseline (1.56)
25 (base 26)
St. Mirren box touches
0.05
xG per St. Mirren shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
ShapeAberdeen started 3-4-3 and stayed in it for the whole match. St. Mirren stayed in 3-5-2 throughout.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 2.05St. Mirren 0.48GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
79%
16%
5%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
St. Mirren Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
10 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0St. Mirren 10
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 16 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | above usual · 140 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 140 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 12 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | above usual · 155 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 155 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
58.4%
24.7%
16.9%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
17.1%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
35avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
89.9%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
65avg 49
Directness
64.8%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 452 | 376.8 | 392.4 | about normal · 132 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 132 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 82.5 | 75.4 | 72.2 | top 10% in 190 matches · 179 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 179 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 32 | 27.2 | 25.2 | above usual · 147 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 147 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 43 | 53.2 | 57.8 | below usual · 19 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 19 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 9.5 | 14.4 | 15.6 | bottom 10% — fewest since vs Kilmarnock, Sept 2026 · 8 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since vs Kilmarnock, Sept 2026 · 8 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | St. Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 1.83 | 1.17 | 0.48 |
| Big chances | 3 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Touches in box | 31 | 21.6 | 25 |
| Possession % | 51 | 48.1 | 49 |
Aberdeen were a different side after half time — 1.64 xG to 0.19 before it.
FotMob period stats — same source as the match xG. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with St. Mirren.
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
At St. Mirren — every meeting on record
0-2-7(9 games)
0.85–1.57avg xG (n=8)
LLLLDLLLD
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
2.05avg 1.17
6th best of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
0.48avg 1.59
3rd best of 38 · Highest 4.72, 21 December 2025 (1-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
51%avg 48%
16th best of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 27%, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Shots
16.0avg 11.1
7th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
4.0avg 3.4
11th best of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
3.0avg 1.7
5th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
31.0avg 21.3
5th best of 38 · Highest 37.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
44.0avg 55.7
10th worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 29.0, 21 December 2025 (1-3)
Key passes
14.0avg 8.0
4th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
2.0avg 4.8
6th worst of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
9.0avg 16.0
3rd worst of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
9.0avg 8.5
13th best of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
15.3avg 15.1
13th worst of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
6%avg 5%
15th best of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.48xGA
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LDLLW(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match