Kilmarnock (H) 2–1
Dundee United (H) 1–1 →The verdict
Event data: Opta
A defeat that matched the balance of chances.
10–31 shots · 1–8 big chances · 0.92–4.72 NPxG
Watch Highlights
SPFL YouTubeSummary
How the match was decided
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.92 – 4.72
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Celtic
AFC xG baseline: 1.19
0.09 – 0.15
xG per shot
10 – 31
shots
Celtic created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionOPPONENT EDGE
1.85 – 6.15
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Celtic
AFC xT baseline: 1.88
40% – 60%
field tilt
29 – 103
final-third entries
Celtic had the better of the territorial battle.
Defensive resistanceOPPONENT EDGE
4.72 xGA
chances conceded
3.16 worse than AFC baseline (1.56)
60 (base 25)
Celtic box touches
0.15
xG per Celtic shot
Aberdeen conceded better chances than they usually do.
ShapeAberdeen started 5-4-1 and changed to 4-4-1-1 on 58’, then 5-3-2 on 73’. Celtic stayed in 3-4-2-1 throughout.
The match by half
| Aberdeen | Usual | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| xG | 0.92 | 1.19 | 4.72 |
| Big chances | 1 | 1.8 | 8 |
| Touches in box | 17 | 21.6 | 60 |
| Possession % | 27 | 48.1 | 73 |
Chance creation was fairly even across the two halves.
Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half this season.
How this is measured
FotMob period stats. Usual = Aberdeen’s average for this half across 38 games in 2025-26. Green or red marks a figure clearly above or below our own norm, never a comparison with Celtic.
Lineups
Shots
Where the chances came from
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.91Celtic 4.72GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
96%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Aberdeen shots
1 goal: 1 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
10 shots
Celtic shots
3 goals: 3 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
31 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
10shots · 2 on target · 0.91 xG
By situation
40%
10%
40%
10%
Open play440%
Counter110%
Corner440%
Free kick / throw110%
By body part
90%
10%
Right foot990%
Left foot110%
How this is measured
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 10Celtic 31
0'HTFT
Drag across the chart to pick any window.
How this is measured
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 10 games | 5-year 195 games | SPFL average 116 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 10 | 12.8 | 12.2 | 14.4 | about normal · 68 of 195 lower |
| about normal · 68 of 195 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 6 | 8.3 | 8 | 9.9 | below usual · 54 of 195 lower |
| below usual · 54 of 195 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing
How the ball moved
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
59.8%
26.9%
13.3%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.1% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
76.1%avg 60.7%
GK Total Passes
46avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
82.4%avg 86.1%
Progression
Progressive Passes
25avg 50
Directness
60.1%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 10 games | 5-year 195 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 229 | 396.2 | 393 | bottom 10% — fewest since @ St. Mirren, Mar 2024 · 9 of 195 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since @ St. Mirren, Mar 2024 · 9 of 195 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 69 | 75.5 | 72.3 | below usual · 57 of 195 lower |
| below usual · 57 of 195 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 9 | 30.8 | 25.4 | bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Nov 2023 · 5 of 195 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Nov 2023 · 5 of 195 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 49 | 57.5 | 57.9 | below usual · 46 of 195 lower |
| below usual · 46 of 195 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 21.4 | 14.8 | 15.6 | above usual · 172 of 195 lower |
| above usual · 172 of 195 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
Players
Player contributions
Player contributions
GK
M
D. MitovGK90'
6 clearances · 7 saves
24/46
Pass
-
Duels
7
Saves
DEF
L
D. LobbanDEF48'
7/12
Pass
60%
Duels
1
Tkl+Int
D
N. DevlinDEF90'
9 clearances
15/19
Pass
100%
Duels
1
Tkl+Int
J. MilneDEF90'
8 clearances
19/26
Pass
0%
Duels
0
Tkl+Int
M. KnoesterDEF90'
7 clearances · 5 aerials won
23/28
Pass
67%
Duels
2
Tkl+Int
J
A. JensenDEF89'
2 key passes
13/25
Pass
100%
Duels
0
Tkl+Int
MID
K
T. KeskinenMID54'
1 key pass
10/13
Pass
57%
Duels
1
Key P
A
A. AouchicheMID68'
19/24
Pass
23%
Duels
-
Key P
S. ArmstrongMID90'
1 key pass · 3 interceptions
30/34
Pass
40%
Duels
1
Key P
K
J. KarlssonMID53'
2 key passes
6/10
Pass
0%
Duels
2
Key P
FWD
L
M. LazetićFWD68'
1/3
Pass
33%
Duels
1
Shots
Substitutes
S
G. ShinnieMID37'
11/12
Pass
100%
Duels
-
Key P
E. GyamfiDEF36'
3/6
Pass
57%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
B
K. BilalovicMID22'
1 goal
3/4
Pass
50%
Duels
-
Key P
M
K. M. KjartanssonMID22'
1 assist · 1 big chance created · 1 key pass
3/4
Pass
20%
Duels
1
Key P
K. NisbetFWD1'
0/0
Pass
0%
Duels
-
Shots
Context
How this match compares
Across the archive
All recordsWhere this match ranks against every Aberdeen match with data for each metric — coverage varies (shots/possession from 2015-16, xG from 2020-21, most else from 2021-22; see /records for each metric's exact range). Only metrics in the top or bottom 10 are shown.
4.72
xG conceded
highest of 233
22.90
Defensive line height
2nd lowest of 192
-3.81
xG difference
3rd lowest of 233
8
Big chances conceded
3rd highest of 195 · tied with 1
31
Shots conceded
4th highest of 412
39.10
Average pass position
4th lowest of 195 · tied with 1
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
4.72xGA
38th of 38 · season worst
-3.81xGD
38th of 38 · season worst
25progressive passes
31st of 33 · among the worst
Form:WWDWW(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
At Celtic — every meeting on record
0-1-9(10 games)
0.59–2.71avg xG (n=7)
LLDLLLLLLL
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.91avg 1.20
17th worst of 38 · Highest 3.76, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.32, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
xGA
4.72avg 1.47
worst of 38 · Highest 3.99, 21 February 2026 (2-3) · Lowest 0.10, 11 April 2026 (2-0)
Possession
27%avg 49%
worst of 38 · Highest 72%, 27 December 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 29%, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Shots
10.0avg 11.3
18th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 6 December 2025 (3-1) · Lowest 5.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1)
Shots on target
2.0avg 3.4
18th worst of 38 · Highest 9.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 0.0, 3 January 2026 (0-1)
Big chances
1.0avg 1.8
19th best of 38 · Highest 5.0, 14 December 2025 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Box touches
16.0avg 21.4
12th worst of 38 · Highest 35.0, 24 January 2026 (6-2) · Lowest 7.0, 21 March 2026 (1-4)
Final third entries
29.0avg 56.1
worst of 38 · Highest 85.0, 14 March 2026 (1-1) · Lowest 32.0, 6 January 2026 (0-2)
Key passes
7.0avg 8.2
18th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 3.0, 23 November 2025 (1-0)
Corners
4.0avg 4.7
17th best of 38 · Highest 11.0, 5 October 2025 (4-0) · Lowest 1.0, 10 August 2025 (0-2)
Tackles
9.0avg 16.0
3rd worst of 38 · Highest 27.0, 9 November 2025 (1-1) · Lowest 6.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
Interceptions
6.0avg 8.6
11th worst of 38 · Highest 20.0, 28 February 2026 (0-1) · Lowest 2.0, 27 December 2025 (1-1)
PPDA
18.9avg 15.0
6th worst of 33 · Highest 31.4, 10 August 2025 (0-2) · Lowest 9.3, 11 January 2026 (0-2)
Counter-press rate
2%avg 6%
2nd worst of 33 · Highest 11%, 24 February 2026 (0-0) · Lowest 2%, 9 November 2025 (1-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg