Celtic
3–1
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
4.72xG
-3.81AFC xGD
xG0.92
Expected points 2.44–0.20
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
9.3D. Mitov
D. Mitov ran the show — a 9.3 rating.
Second best on chances
0.92–4.72xG for–against
The opposition created more — 4.72 xG against Aberdeen's 0.92.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.20 · -0.20
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?27% luck · mostly down to skill
About 27% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.91Celtic 4.87GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
10 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 4.72 xG to Aberdeen's 0.92.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.92
4.72
1.19
Shots
10
31
11
Shots on target
2
10
3
Big chances
1
8
2
Box touches
17
60
22
xG per shot
0.09
0.15
0.11
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
27%
73%
48%
Field tilt
40%
60%
51%
Progressive passes
25
—
46
Final-third entries
29
103
55
xT (threat created)
1.85
—
1.88
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 4.72 xGA, above the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
4.72
0.92
1.56
PPDA
30.5
—
14.3
High regains
2
—
5
Tackles
9
—
16
Interceptions
6
—
9
Opp. box touches
60
17
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
4.72xGA
38th of 38 · season worst
-3.81xGD
38th of 38 · season worst
25progressive passes
31st of 33 · among the worst
Form:WWDWW(last 5)
Away this season: 4-2-13, 0.96–1.71 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)