Aberdeen
2–0
FT · Win
Dundee United
2.17xG
+1.38AFC xGD
xG0.79
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved winMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
8.0S. Armstrong
S. Armstrong ran the show — a 8.0 rating with 1 goal.
Chance dominance
2.17–0.79xG for–against
Aberdeen created the far better chances — 2.17 xG to 0.79.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.26 · +0.74
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?25% luck · mostly down to skill
About 25% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 2.17Dundee United 0.79GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
15 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 2.17 xG to 0.79, and the bigger ones (3–1 big chances). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
2.17
0.79
1.19
Shots
15
7
11
Shots on target
5
1
3
Big chances
3
1
2
Box touches
28
13
22
xG per shot
0.14
0.11
0.11
Territory & progression
Territory and possession were about typical for Aberdeen.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
51%
49%
48%
Field tilt
55%
45%
51%
Progressive passes
—
—
46
Final-third entries
53
69
55
xT (threat created)
—
—
1.88
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.79 xGA, below the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 11.1).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.79
2.17
1.56
PPDA
11.1
—
14.3
High regains
—
—
5
Tackles
19
—
16
Interceptions
9
—
9
Opp. box touches
13
28
26
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:LLWWD(last 5)
Home this season: 7-5-7, 1.42–1.41 xG avg
After scoring first: 10-3-2 (15 games)