Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
1.08xG
+0.65AFC xGD
xG0.43
Expected points 1.59–0.72
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
Aberdeen generated little despite having most of the ball.
8–10 shots · 1–1 big chances · 1.08–0.43 NPxG
Watch Highlights
SPFL YouTubeThe match in three battles
Chance qualityABERDEEN EDGE
1.08 – 0.43
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xG baseline: 1.22
0.14 – 0.04
xG per shot
8 – 10
shots
Aberdeen produced fewer attempts, but their average chance was 3 times as valuable.
Territory & progressionABERDEEN EDGE
2.29 – 1.73
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xT baseline: 1.95
59% – 42%
field tilt
50 – 69
final-third entries
Aberdeen controlled the territory and pushed play into Kilmarnock's half.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.43 xGA
chances conceded
1.21 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
20 (base 24)
Kilmarnock box touches
0.04
xG per Kilmarnock shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.08Kilmarnock 0.43GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
55%
32%
13%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Aberdeen Shot Map
1 goal: 0 open play, 1 corner
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
Kilmarnock Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
10 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
8shots · 4 on target
By situation
50%
38%
13%
Open play450%
Corner338%
Free kick / throw113%
By body part
38%
50%
13%
Right foot338%
Left foot450%
Head113%
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 8Kilmarnock 10
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 7 games | 5-year 192 games | SPFL average 80 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 8 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 14.4 | below usual · 37 of 192 lower |
| below usual · 37 of 192 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 7 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 9.8 | about normal · 76 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 76 of 192 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
41.5%
34.9%
23.6%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.3% own half
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
82.8%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
48avg 49
Directness
53.8%avg 57.8%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 7 games | 5-year 192 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 402 | 371.9 | 392 | about normal · 103 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 103 of 192 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 69.7 | 75.7 | 72.2 | about normal · 64 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 64 of 192 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 17 | 26.3 | 25.2 | below usual · 39 of 192 lower |
| below usual · 39 of 192 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 65 | 54.6 | 57.8 | above usual · 146 of 192 lower |
| above usual · 146 of 192 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 16.2 | 15 | 15.6 | about normal · 118 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 118 of 192 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
Players
Player contributions
GK
M
D. MitovGK90'
5 saves
18/37
Pass
100%
Duels
5
Saves
DEF
J
A. JensenDEF90'
25/35
Pass
63%
Duels
1
Tkl+Int
T
K. TobersDEF90'
8 clearances · 5 aerials won
42/49
Pass
88%
Duels
1
Tkl+Int
M. KnoesterDEF90'
4 tackles · 6 clearances · 4 aerials won
28/41
Pass
75%
Duels
5
Tkl+Int
M
J. MackenzieDEF45'
14/19
Pass
67%
Duels
2
Tkl+Int
MID
N
S. NilsenMID90'
1 key pass
41/51
Pass
29%
Duels
1
Key P
P
A. PalaversaMID66'
1 key pass · 6 clearances · 4 aerials won
42/56
Pass
45%
Duels
1
Key P
K
T. KeskinenMID90'
3 shots
13/17
Pass
33%
Duels
-
Key P
H
P. H. GueyeMID66'
1 key pass · 7 aerials won
12/20
Pass
52%
Duels
1
Key P
O
J. OkkelsMID73'
17/20
Pass
0%
Duels
-
Key P
FWD
K. NisbetFWD90'
1 assist · 1 big chance created · 2 key passes
14/24
Pass
36%
Duels
2
Shots
Substitutes
S
G. ShinnieMID25'
5/6
Pass
63%
Duels
-
Key P
D
O. DabbaghFWD24'
1 goal · 1 key pass
4/7
Pass
25%
Duels
1
Shots
C
L. ClarksonMID24'
2 key passes
10/13
Pass
100%
Duels
2
Key P
D
N. DevlinDEF20'
7/10
Pass
33%
Duels
1
Tkl+Int
M
S. MorrisFWD17'
4/5
Pass
40%
Duels
-
Shots
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Kilmarnock at Home — every meeting on record
6-1-1(8 games)
1.81–0.78avg xG (n=7)
DWWWLWWW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
1.08avg 1.22
18th worst of 38 · Highest 2.78, 30 October 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.29, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
xGA
0.43avg 1.67
2nd best of 38 · Highest 4.02, 26 December 2024 (0-4) · Lowest 0.38, 26 October 2024 (1-0)
Possession
61%avg 53%
12th best of 38 · Highest 74%, 25 January 2025 (0-3) · Lowest 27%, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Shots
8.0avg 12.2
13th worst of 38 · Highest 21.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 6.0, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
Shots on target
3.0avg 3.8
19th worst of 38 · Highest 8.0, 9 November 2024 (4-1) · Lowest 0.0, 3 May 2025 (0-1)
Big chances
1.0avg 1.7
19th worst of 38 · Highest 4.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 6 October 2024 (3-2)
Box touches
33.0avg 24.6
5th best of 38 · Highest 52.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 8.0, 25 February 2025 (1-5)
Final third entries
50.0avg 57.1
14th worst of 38 · Highest 86.0, 26 October 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 31.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Key passes
8.0avg 9.1
17th worst of 38 · Highest 19.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 4.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Corners
8.0avg 6.0
8th best of 38 · Highest 14.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 1.0, 29 December 2024 (0-1)
Tackles
15.0avg 17.2
14th worst of 38 · Highest 29.0, 12 January 2025 (0-0) · Lowest 9.0, 26 April 2025 (1-0)
Interceptions
2.0avg 6.6
worst of 38 · Highest 15.0, 31 August 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 3.0, 25 August 2024 (2-0)
PPDA
10.4avg 15.7
9th best of 38 · Highest 48.6, 14 May 2025 (1-5) · Lowest 7.3, 2 March 2025 (2-2)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.43xGA
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:DLLLW(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg