Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
1.08xG
+0.65AFC xGD
xG0.43
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Deserved winMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.8D. Mitov
D. Mitov ran the show — a 7.8 rating.
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage — 1 goal from set pieces (0.63 set-piece xG).
Defence locked down
0.43xGA · 1.64 avg
The back line gave almost nothing away — 0.43 xGA against a season average of 1.64.
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 1.58 · +1.42
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?28% luck · mostly down to skill
About 28% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.08Kilmarnock 0.43GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 1.08 xG to 0.43.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.08
0.43
1.22
Shots
8
10
12
Shots on target
3
5
4
Big chances
1
1
2
Box touches
33
21
25
xG per shot
0.14
0.04
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
61%
39%
53%
Field tilt
59%
42%
53%
Progressive passes
48
—
52
Final-third entries
50
69
57
xT (threat created)
2.29
—
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.43 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.43
1.08
1.64
PPDA
11.9
—
12.8
High regains
3
—
6
Tackles
15
—
17
Interceptions
2
—
7
Opp. box touches
21
33
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.43xGA
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:DLLLW(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)