Rangers
4–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
2.60xG
-2.03AFC xGD
xG0.57
Expected points 2.44–0.20
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Second best on chances
0.57–2.60xG for–against
The opposition created more — 2.60 xG against Aberdeen's 0.57.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.20 · -0.20
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?42% luck · part luck, part skill
About 42% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.57Rangers 2.60GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 2.60 xG to Aberdeen's 0.57. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.57
2.60
1.22
Shots
8
24
12
Shots on target
4
11
4
Big chances
0
4
2
Box touches
11
44
25
xG per shot
0.07
0.11
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
30%
70%
53%
Field tilt
48%
52%
53%
Progressive passes
34
—
52
Final-third entries
35
83
57
xT (threat created)
1.51
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 2.60 xGA, above the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
2.60
0.57
1.64
PPDA
17.0
—
12.8
High regains
2
—
6
Tackles
21
—
17
Interceptions
4
—
7
Opp. box touches
44
11
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
11box touches
36th of 38 · among the worst
2high regains
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:WWDWL(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)