Ross County
0–1
FT · Win
Aberdeen
1.19xG
+0.27AFC xGD
xG1.47
Expected points 0.73–1.58
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Aggressive press
8.1PPDA · 12.8 avg
Aberdeen pressed hard — 8.1 passes allowed per defensive action versus a 12.8 average (lower is more aggressive).
Standout performer
7.7R. Doohan
R. Doohan ran the show — a 7.7 rating.
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 1.58 · +1.42
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?18% luck · mostly down to skill
About 18% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.47Ross County 1.19GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
10 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.47 xG to 1.19).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.47
1.19
1.22
Shots
10
11
12
Shots on target
4
4
4
Big chances
3
2
2
Box touches
16
24
25
xG per shot
0.15
0.11
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
47%
53%
53%
Field tilt
56%
44%
53%
Progressive passes
23
—
52
Final-third entries
50
83
57
xT (threat created)
1.57
—
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 1.19 xGA, below the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 8.1).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.19
1.47
1.64
PPDA
8.1
—
12.8
High regains
6
—
6
Tackles
23
—
17
Interceptions
5
—
7
Opp. box touches
24
16
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
23progressive passes
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:WLDDW(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)