Ross County
0–1
FT · Win
Aberdeen
1.19xG
+0.27AFC xGD
xG1.47
Expected points 0.72–1.57
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Ross County generated more attacking volume — 11 shots and 24 box touches to Aberdeen's 10 and 16. But Aberdeen created the better chances: 0.15 xG per shot to 0.11, and the bigger ones (3–2 big chances).
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.57 – 0.72
From the full xG (1.47–1.19), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.57 pts
From non-penalty xG (1.47–1.19). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
1.47 – 1.19
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Ross County
AFC xG baseline: 1.22
0.15 – 0.11
xG per shot
10 – 11
shots
Aberdeen produced fewer attempts, but their average chance was far as valuable.
Territory & progressionSLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
1.57 – 3.90
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Ross County
AFC xT baseline: 1.95
56% – 44%
field tilt
50 – 83
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
1.19 xGA
chances conceded
0.45 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
24 (base 24)
Ross County box touches
0.11
xG per Ross County shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.47Ross County 1.19GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
43%
28%
29%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Ross County Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
11 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Ross County 11
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 10 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | about normal · 67 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 67 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 8 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | about normal · 98 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 98 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
44.0%
38.4%
17.6%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
65.5%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
29avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
83.5%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
23avg 49
Directness
57.0%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 249 | 376.8 | 392.4 | bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Dec 2025 · 18 of 190 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since @ Celtic, Dec 2025 · 18 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 66.7 | 75.4 | 72.2 | below usual · 40 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 40 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 14 | 27.2 | 25.2 | below usual · 24 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 24 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 63 | 53.2 | 57.8 | about normal · 128 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 128 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 25.3 | 14.4 | 15.6 | top 10% in 190 matches · 183 of 190 lower |
| top 10% in 190 matches · 183 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
At Ross County — every meeting on record
3-3-1(7 games)
0.93–1.02avg xG (n=6)
WDWWDDL
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
1.47avg 1.21
15th best of 38 · Highest 2.78, 30 October 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.29, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
xGA
1.19avg 1.65
12th best of 38 · Highest 4.02, 26 December 2024 (0-4) · Lowest 0.38, 26 October 2024 (1-0)
Possession
47%avg 54%
10th worst of 38 · Highest 74%, 25 January 2025 (0-3) · Lowest 27%, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Shots
10.0avg 12.1
16th worst of 38 · Highest 21.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 6.0, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
Shots on target
4.0avg 3.8
11th best of 38 · Highest 8.0, 9 November 2024 (4-1) · Lowest 0.0, 3 May 2025 (0-1)
Big chances
3.0avg 1.6
7th best of 38 · Highest 4.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 6 October 2024 (3-2)
Box touches
16.0avg 25.2
7th worst of 38 · Highest 51.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 8.0, 25 February 2025 (1-5)
Final third entries
50.0avg 57.1
14th worst of 38 · Highest 86.0, 26 October 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 31.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Key passes
9.0avg 9.1
19th worst of 38 · Highest 19.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 4.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Corners
1.0avg 6.2
2nd worst of 38 · Highest 14.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 1.0, 29 December 2024 (0-1)
Tackles
23.0avg 17.0
3rd best of 38 · Highest 29.0, 12 January 2025 (0-0) · Lowest 9.0, 26 April 2025 (1-0)
Interceptions
5.0avg 6.5
19th worst of 38 · Highest 15.0, 31 August 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 2.0, 22 February 2025 (1-0)
Counter-press rate
6%avg 7%
13th worst of 38 · Highest 11%, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 1%, 4 December 2024 (0-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
23progressive passes
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:WLDDW(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
In six seasons
All recordsWhere this match ranks against every Aberdeen match on file since 2021-22. Only metrics in the top or bottom 10 are shown.
25.20
Defensive line height
5th lowest of 190
25.30%
Long-ball share
7th highest of 190
Detailed stats not available for this match