Aberdeen
2–2
FT · Draw
Rangers
2.44xG
+1.26AFC xGD
xG1.19
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Aggressive pressure
15high regains · 6 avg
A ferocious counter-press — 15 ball recoveries in the final third against a season average of 6.
Standout performer
7.8L. Clarkson
L. Clarkson ran the show — a 7.8 rating with 1 goal.
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage — 1 goal from set pieces (0.21 set-piece xG).
Result verdict
Unfortunate
Took 1 pt · expected 2.26 · -1.26
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?33% luck · part luck, part skill
About 33% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 2.44Rangers 1.18GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
17 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 2.44 xG to 1.19, and the bigger ones (4–2 big chances). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
2.44
1.19
1.22
Shots
17
12
12
Shots on target
5
4
4
Big chances
4
2
2
Box touches
27
16
25
xG per shot
0.14
0.10
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
52%
48%
53%
Field tilt
61%
40%
53%
Progressive passes
73
—
52
Final-third entries
67
58
57
xT (threat created)
2.06
—
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 1.19 xGA, below the season average. High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.19
2.44
1.64
PPDA
12.1
—
12.8
High regains
15
—
6
Tackles
19
—
17
Interceptions
5
—
7
Opp. box touches
16
27
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
4big chances
1st of 38 · season best
15high regains
1st of 38 · season best
2.44xG
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
+1.26xGD
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:LDDWW(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)