Hibernian
3–3
FT · Draw
Aberdeen
2.21xG
-0.60AFC xGD
xG1.61
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.9N. Devlin
N. Devlin ran the show — a 7.9 rating with 1 goal.
Second-half surge
3 goalsafter the break
Aberdeen took over after half-time — 3 of the goals came in the second half.
Aggressive press
7.5PPDA · 12.8 avg
Aberdeen pressed hard — 7.5 passes allowed per defensive action versus a 12.8 average (lower is more aggressive).
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 1 pt · expected 0.73 · +0.27
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?23% luck · mostly down to skill
About 23% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.61Hibernian 2.21GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
15 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 2.21 xG to Aberdeen's 1.61.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.61
2.21
1.22
Shots
15
21
12
Shots on target
6
4
4
Big chances
0
2
2
Box touches
30
31
25
xG per shot
0.11
0.11
0.10
Territory & progression
Territory and possession were about typical for Aberdeen.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
51%
49%
53%
Field tilt
53%
47%
53%
Progressive passes
52
—
52
Final-third entries
60
48
57
xT (threat created)
1.83
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 2.21 xGA, above the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 7.5).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
2.21
1.61
1.64
PPDA
7.5
—
12.8
High regains
4
—
6
Tackles
23
—
17
Interceptions
9
—
7
Opp. box touches
31
30
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:DWWWL(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)