St. Mirren
2–1
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.56xG
-0.18AFC xGD
xG1.38
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Controlled the ball
72%possession · 53% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball — 72% possession against a 53% season average.
Standout performer
7.8J. McGrath
J. McGrath ran the show — a 7.8 rating with 1 goal.
Aggressive press
7.1PPDA · 12.8 avg
Aberdeen pressed hard — 7.1 passes allowed per defensive action versus a 12.8 average (lower is more aggressive).
Result verdict
Very unfortunate
Took 0 pts · expected 1.58 · -1.58
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?39% luck · part luck, part skill
About 39% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.38St. Mirren 1.56GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
16 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.38 xG to 1.56).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.38
1.56
1.22
Shots
16
16
12
Shots on target
4
6
4
Big chances
2
3
2
Box touches
24
25
25
xG per shot
0.09
0.10
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
72%
28%
53%
Field tilt
38%
62%
53%
Progressive passes
62
—
52
Final-third entries
50
68
57
xT (threat created)
1.25
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.56 xGA). The press was aggressive (PPDA 7.1).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.56
1.38
1.64
PPDA
7.1
—
12.8
High regains
6
—
6
Tackles
14
—
17
Interceptions
8
—
7
Opp. box touches
25
24
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
38%field tilt
38th of 38 · season worst
Form:WDWWW(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)