Aberdeen
2–0
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
1.66xG
+1.23AFC xGD
xG0.43
Expected points 2.29–0.73
Deserved winMatch in 30 seconds
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage: 1 goal from set pieces (0.28 set-piece xG).
Defence locked down
0.43xGA · 1.64 avg
The back line gave almost nothing away: 0.43 xGA against a season average of 1.64.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.29 · +0.71
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?50% luck · part luck, part skill
About 50% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck, a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample; finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.66Kilmarnock 0.43GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances: 1.66 xG to 0.43, and the bigger ones (3–1 big chances).
MetricAFCOppseason avg
xG
quality of chances created
1.66✓
0.43
1.22
Shots
total attempts
12✓
7
12
Shots on target
attempts hitting the target
3✓
2
4
Big chances
clear, should-score chances
3✓
1
2
Box touches
touches in the opponent's box
32✓
18
25
xG per shot
average chance quality per shot
0.14✓
0.06
0.10
Territory & progression
Territory and possession were about typical for Aberdeen.
MetricAFCOppseason avg
Possession
share of the ball
58%✓
42%
53%
Field tilt
share of play in the opponent's half
—
–
—
Progressive passes
passes moving the ball upfield
58
–
52
Final-third entries
moves into the final third
68✓
64
57
xT (threat created)
danger added by passing moves
1.87
–
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display: 0.43 xGA, below the season average.
MetricAFCOppseason avg
xGA
quality of chances conceded — lower is better
0.43✓
1.66
1.64
PPDA
how hard Aberdeen pressed — lower is harder
12.1
–
12.8
High regains
balls won high up the pitch
6
–
6
Tackles
tackles made
16
–
17
Interceptions
opponent passes cut out
3
–
7
Opp. box touches
opponent touches in our box — lower is better
18✓
32
24
Green tick = the side on top for that metric (higher or lower as appropriate). The last column is Aberdeen’s average for reference — this season once enough games are played, otherwise last season. Dashes are Aberdeen-only measures.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.43xGA
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
+1.23xGD
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:WW(last 2)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match