Aberdeen
2–0
FT · Win
Kilmarnock
1.66xG
+1.23AFC xGD
xG0.43
Expected points 2.29–0.72
Deserved winThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A win that matched the balance of chances.
12–7 shots · 3–1 big chances · 1.66–0.43 NPxG
Watch Highlights
SPFL YouTubeThe match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG ABERDEEN EDGE
1.66 – 0.43
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xG baseline: 1.22
0.14 – 0.06
xG per shot
12 – 7
shots
Aberdeen's chances were the better ones — 0.14 xG per shot to 0.06.
Territory & progressionSLIGHT ABERDEEN EDGE
1.87 – 1.60
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Kilmarnock
AFC xT baseline: 1.95
54% – 46%
field tilt
68 – 64
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.43 xGA
chances conceded
1.21 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
17 (base 24)
Kilmarnock box touches
0.06
xG per Kilmarnock shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 1.66Kilmarnock 0.43GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
74%
20%
7%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Aberdeen Shot Map
2 goals: 1 open play, 1 corner
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
12 shots
Kilmarnock Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
7 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
12shots · 3 on target
By situation
42%
50%
Open play542%
Corner650%
Free kick / throw18%
By body part
42%
33%
25%
Right foot542%
Left foot433%
Head325%
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 12Kilmarnock 7
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 7 games | 5-year 192 games | SPFL average 80 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 12 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 14.4 | about normal · 102 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 102 of 192 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 8 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 9.8 | about normal · 100 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 100 of 192 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
45.7%
34.6%
19.7%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.3% own half
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
86.2%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
58avg 49
Directness
57.4%avg 57.8%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 7 games | 5-year 192 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 435 | 371.9 | 392 | about normal · 120 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 120 of 192 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 76.6 | 75.7 | 72.2 | about normal · 125 of 192 lower |
| about normal · 125 of 192 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 33 | 26.3 | 25.2 | above usual · 151 of 192 lower |
| above usual · 151 of 192 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 45 | 54.6 | 57.8 | below usual · 25 of 192 lower |
| below usual · 25 of 192 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 10.3 | 15 | 15.6 | bottom 10% — fewest since vs Kilmarnock, Sept 2026 · 18 of 192 lower |
| bottom 10% — fewest since vs Kilmarnock, Sept 2026 · 18 of 192 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
Players
Player contributions
GK
M
D. MitovGK90'
2 saves
13/24
Pass
-
Duels
2
Saves
DEF
D
N. DevlinDEF90'
20/24
Pass
50%
Duels
1
Tkl+Int
R
S. RubežićDEF90'
10 clearances · 8 aerials won
38/44
Pass
71%
Duels
2
Tkl+Int
G. MolloyDEF90'
9 clearances · 4 aerials won
54/60
Pass
60%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
M
J. MackenzieDEF90'
1 key pass · 5 aerials won
38/55
Pass
53%
Duels
3
Tkl+Int
MID
S
G. ShinnieMID90'
1 assist · 1 big chance created · 2 key passes
49/62
Pass
61%
Duels
2
Key P
N
S. NilsenMID88'
51/65
Pass
83%
Duels
-
Key P
K
T. KeskinenMID71'
9/15
Pass
20%
Duels
-
Key P
H
P. H. GueyeMID79'
2 goals · 3 shots
18/24
Pass
38%
Duels
-
Key P
M
J. McGrathMID88'
1 assist · 1 big chance created · 3 key passes
30/45
Pass
47%
Duels
3
Key P
FWD
S
E. SoklerFWD79'
9/11
Pass
29%
Duels
1
Shots
Substitutes
B
V. BesuijenFWD19'
1 key pass
7/8
Pass
-
Duels
-
Shots
A
P. AmbroseFWD11'
4/4
Pass
50%
Duels
-
Shots
K. NisbetFWD11'
1/1
Pass
0%
Duels
-
Shots
P
A. PalaversaMID9'
4/4
Pass
0%
Duels
-
Key P
M
S. MorrisFWD9'
0/0
Pass
0%
Duels
-
Shots
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Kilmarnock at Home — every meeting on record
6-1-1(8 games)
1.73–0.78avg xG (n=7)
DWWWLWWW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
1.66avg 1.21
10th best of 38 · Highest 2.78, 30 October 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.29, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
xGA
0.43avg 1.67
2nd best of 38 · Highest 4.02, 26 December 2024 (0-4) · Lowest 0.38, 26 October 2024 (1-0)
Possession
58%avg 53%
16th best of 38 · Highest 74%, 25 January 2025 (0-3) · Lowest 27%, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Shots
12.0avg 12.1
15th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 6.0, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
Shots on target
3.0avg 3.8
19th worst of 38 · Highest 8.0, 9 November 2024 (4-1) · Lowest 0.0, 3 May 2025 (0-1)
Big chances
3.0avg 1.6
7th best of 38 · Highest 4.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 6 October 2024 (3-2)
Box touches
32.0avg 24.6
7th best of 38 · Highest 52.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 8.0, 25 February 2025 (1-5)
Final third entries
68.0avg 56.6
7th best of 38 · Highest 86.0, 26 October 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 31.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Key passes
7.0avg 9.1
16th worst of 38 · Highest 19.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 4.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Corners
8.0avg 6.0
8th best of 38 · Highest 14.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 1.0, 29 December 2024 (0-1)
Tackles
16.0avg 17.2
19th worst of 38 · Highest 29.0, 12 January 2025 (0-0) · Lowest 9.0, 26 April 2025 (1-0)
Interceptions
3.0avg 6.6
7th worst of 38 · Highest 15.0, 31 August 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 2.0, 22 February 2025 (1-0)
PPDA
12.3avg 15.7
18th best of 38 · Highest 48.6, 14 May 2025 (1-5) · Lowest 7.3, 2 March 2025 (2-2)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.43xGA
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
+1.23xGD
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:WW(last 2)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg