Hearts
1–1
FT · Draw
Aberdeen
1.15xG
-0.54AFC xGD
xG0.62
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.8L. Clarkson
L. Clarkson ran the show — a 7.8 rating with 1 goal.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 1 pt · expected 0.73 · +0.27
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?19% luck · mostly down to skill
About 19% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.62Hearts 1.15GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.15 xG to Aberdeen's 0.62. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.62
1.15
1.22
Shots
8
16
12
Shots on target
3
2
4
Big chances
1
3
2
Box touches
20
21
25
xG per shot
0.08
0.07
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
46%
54%
53%
Field tilt
44%
56%
53%
Progressive passes
38
—
52
Final-third entries
49
71
57
xT (threat created)
1.40
—
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 1.15 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.15
0.62
1.64
PPDA
14.8
—
12.8
High regains
5
—
6
Tackles
17
—
17
Interceptions
7
—
7
Opp. box touches
21
20
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:WWWLD(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)