Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Hibernian
0.83xG
-0.11AFC xGD
xG0.93
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.8M. Knoester
M. Knoester ran the show — a 7.8 rating.
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 1.58 · +1.42
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?43% luck · part luck, part skill
About 43% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.83Hibernian 0.93GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
15 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (0.83 xG to 0.93).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.83
0.93
1.22
Shots
15
12
12
Shots on target
5
0
4
Big chances
0
2
2
Box touches
21
13
25
xG per shot
0.06
0.08
0.10
Territory & progression
Territory and possession were about typical for Aberdeen.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
56%
44%
53%
Field tilt
52%
48%
53%
Progressive passes
56
—
52
Final-third entries
63
50
57
xT (threat created)
1.56
—
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.93 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.93
0.83
1.64
PPDA
16.4
—
12.8
High regains
5
—
6
Tackles
9
—
17
Interceptions
10
—
7
Opp. box touches
13
21
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:DDWWD(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)