Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Hibernian
0.83xG
-0.11AFC xGD
xG0.93
Expected points 1.57–1.57
Tight gameThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A dramatic win rather than a dominant performance.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 1.57 – 1.57
From the full xG (0.83–0.93), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 1.57 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.83–0.93). Took 3.
Some fortune.The result flattered Aberdeen slightly — the non-penalty chances were close before the penalty shifted the xG.
The match in three battles
Chance qualityEVEN
0.83 – 0.93
Expected goals · Aberdeen – Hibernian
AFC xG baseline: 1.22
0.06 – 0.08
xG per shot
15 – 12
shots
Hibernian created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionEVEN
1.56 – 1.46
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – Hibernian
AFC xT baseline: 1.95
52% – 48%
field tilt
63 – 50
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
0.93 xGA
chances conceded
0.71 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
13 (base 24)
Hibernian box touches
0.08
xG per Hibernian shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.83Hibernian 0.93GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
30%
34%
37%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
Hibernian Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
12 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0Hibernian 12
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 15 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | about normal · 127 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 127 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 8 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | about normal · 98 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 98 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
48.2%
31.6%
20.2%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
30.3%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
33avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
94.8%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
56avg 49
Directness
54.6%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 494 | 376.8 | 392.4 | above usual · 161 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 161 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 80.6 | 75.4 | 72.2 | above usual · 167 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 167 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 29 | 27.2 | 25.2 | about normal · 123 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 123 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 61 | 53.2 | 57.8 | about normal · 112 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 112 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 12.3 | 14.4 | 15.6 | below usual · 48 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 48 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
Vs Hibernian at Home — every meeting on record
5-2-4(11 games)
1.49–1.29avg xG (n=9)
WLLDLDWWWLW
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.83avg 1.23
12th worst of 38 · Highest 2.78, 30 October 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.29, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
xGA
0.93avg 1.66
8th best of 38 · Highest 4.02, 26 December 2024 (0-4) · Lowest 0.38, 26 October 2024 (1-0)
Possession
56%avg 53%
19th best of 38 · Highest 74%, 25 January 2025 (0-3) · Lowest 27%, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Shots
15.0avg 12.0
9th best of 38 · Highest 21.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 6.0, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
Shots on target
5.0avg 3.7
8th best of 38 · Highest 8.0, 9 November 2024 (4-1) · Lowest 0.0, 3 May 2025 (0-1)
Big chances
0.0avg 1.7
10th worst of 38 · Highest 4.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 6 October 2024 (3-2)
Box touches
21.0avg 25.1
13th worst of 38 · Highest 51.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 8.0, 25 February 2025 (1-5)
Final third entries
63.0avg 56.7
13th best of 38 · Highest 86.0, 26 October 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 31.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Key passes
11.0avg 9.0
10th best of 38 · Highest 19.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 4.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Corners
10.0avg 6.0
5th best of 38 · Highest 14.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 1.0, 29 December 2024 (0-1)
Tackles
9.0avg 17.4
worst of 38 · Highest 29.0, 12 January 2025 (0-0) · Lowest 10.0, 1 February 2025 (0-2)
Interceptions
10.0avg 6.4
5th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 31 August 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 2.0, 22 February 2025 (1-0)
Counter-press rate
7%avg 7%
15th best of 38 · Highest 11%, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 1%, 4 December 2024 (0-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:DDWWD(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match