Aberdeen
0–0
FT · Draw
Hearts
1.09xG
-0.45AFC xGD
xG1.54
Expected points 0.73–1.58
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.9R. Doohan
R. Doohan ran the show — a 7.9 rating.
Goalkeeper stood up
0.97goals prevented
The keeper made the difference — 0.97 xG on target faced, only 0 conceded.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 1 pt · expected 0.73 · +0.27
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?42% luck · part luck, part skill
About 42% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.10Hearts 1.54GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.09 xG to 1.54).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.09
1.54
1.22
Shots
8
9
12
Shots on target
1
3
4
Big chances
2
2
2
Box touches
20
18
25
xG per shot
0.14
0.17
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
49%
51%
53%
Field tilt
41%
59%
53%
Progressive passes
31
—
52
Final-third entries
53
56
57
xT (threat created)
1.30
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.54 xGA).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.54
1.09
1.64
PPDA
11.6
—
12.8
High regains
4
—
6
Tackles
29
—
17
Interceptions
4
—
7
Opp. box touches
18
20
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
1shots on target
36th of 38 · among the worst
41%field tilt
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:LLLLL(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)