Aberdeen
1–5
FT · Loss
Celtic
1.07xG
-2.61AFC xGD
xG3.68
Expected points 0.20–2.44
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Second best on chances
1.07–3.68xG for–against
The opposition created more — 3.68 xG against Aberdeen's 1.07.
Standout performer
7.6D. Mitov
D. Mitov ran the show — a 7.6 rating.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.20 · -0.20
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?38% luck · part luck, part skill
About 38% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.07Celtic 3.68GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
12 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 3.68 xG to Aberdeen's 1.07.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.07
3.68
1.22
Shots
12
25
12
Shots on target
4
13
4
Big chances
1
7
2
Box touches
21
47
25
xG per shot
0.09
0.15
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
31%
69%
53%
Field tilt
51%
49%
53%
Progressive passes
28
—
52
Final-third entries
33
63
57
xT (threat created)
0.89
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 3.68 xGA, above the season average. High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
3.68
1.07
1.64
PPDA
28.8
—
12.8
High regains
8
—
6
Tackles
13
—
17
Interceptions
7
—
7
Opp. box touches
47
21
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
3.68xGA
37th of 38 · among the worst
-2.61xGD
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:WDWLL(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)