Aberdeen
2–1
FT · Win
Rangers
2.78xG
+0.86AFC xGD
xG1.92
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved winMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
7.6N. Devlin
N. Devlin ran the show: a 7.6 rating with 1 goal.
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage: 1 goal from set pieces (1.40 set-piece xG).
Chance dominance
2.78–1.92xG for–against
Aberdeen created the far better chances: 2.78 xG to 1.92.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.26 · +0.74
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?6% luck · mostly down to skill
About 6% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck, a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 2.78Rangers 1.92GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
20 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances: 2.78 xG to 1.92, and the bigger ones (4–2 big chances). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
2.78
1.92
1.22
Shots
20
17
12
Shots on target
7
3
4
Big chances
4
2
2
Box touches
32
25
25
xG per shot
0.14
0.11
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
37%
63%
53%
Field tilt
58%
42%
53%
Progressive passes
37
—
52
Final-third entries
46
51
57
xT (threat created)
1.78
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.92 xGA).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.92
2.78
1.64
PPDA
10.8
—
12.8
High regains
6
—
6
Tackles
19
—
17
Interceptions
5
—
7
Opp. box touches
25
32
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
2.78xG
1st of 38 · season best
4big chances
1st of 38 · season best
20shots
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:WWWDW(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)