Celtic
5–1
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
2.72xG
-1.87AFC xGD
xG0.85
Expected points 2.44–0.20
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Second best on chances
0.85–2.72xG for–against
The opposition created more — 2.72 xG against Aberdeen's 0.85.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.20 · -0.20
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?34% luck · part luck, part skill
About 34% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.85Celtic 2.72GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 2.72 xG to Aberdeen's 0.85.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.85
2.72
1.22
Shots
8
16
12
Shots on target
1
7
4
Big chances
4
4
2
Box touches
8
22
25
xG per shot
0.11
0.17
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
31%
69%
53%
Field tilt
48%
52%
53%
Progressive passes
29
—
52
Final-third entries
35
54
57
xT (threat created)
0.31
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 2.72 xGA, above the season average. High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
2.72
0.85
1.64
PPDA
23.7
—
12.8
High regains
8
—
6
Tackles
17
—
17
Interceptions
4
—
7
Opp. box touches
22
8
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
4big chances
1st of 38 · season best
8box touches
38th of 38 · season worst
1shots on target
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:LLLWW(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)