Dundee United
1–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
2.29xG
-1.38AFC xGD
xG0.91
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Aggressive pressure
10high regains · 6 avg
A ferocious counter-press — 10 ball recoveries in the final third against a season average of 6.
Second best on chances
0.91–2.29xG for–against
The opposition created more — 2.29 xG against Aberdeen's 0.91.
Standout performer
7.6D. Mitov
D. Mitov ran the show — a 7.6 rating.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?39% luck · part luck, part skill
About 39% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.91Dundee United 2.29GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
9 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 2.29 xG to Aberdeen's 0.91.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.91
2.29
1.22
Shots
9
19
12
Shots on target
2
6
4
Big chances
0
4
2
Box touches
26
23
25
xG per shot
0.10
0.12
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
60%
40%
53%
Field tilt
49%
52%
53%
Progressive passes
71
—
52
Final-third entries
70
53
57
xT (threat created)
2.77
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 2.29 xGA, above the season average. High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
2.29
0.91
1.64
PPDA
13.9
—
12.8
High regains
10
—
6
Tackles
13
—
17
Interceptions
3
—
7
Opp. box touches
23
26
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
10high regains
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:DLDLL(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)