Aberdeen
3–1
FT · Win
St. Mirren
1.60xG
+0.30AFC xGD
xG1.30
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Aggressive pressure
9high regains · 6 avg
A ferocious counter-press: 9 ball recoveries in the final third against a season average of 6.
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage: 1 goal from set pieces (0.77 set-piece xG).
Clinical finishing
3 from 1.60goals from xG
The finishing ran hot: 3 scored from 1.60 xG worth of chances.
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 1.58 · +1.42
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?59% luck · mostly luck
About 59% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck, a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample; finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.60St. Mirren 1.30GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Open-play chances were finely balanced (1.60 xG to 1.30).
MetricAFCOppseason avg
xG
quality of chances created
1.60✓
1.30
1.22
Shots
total attempts
11✓
10
12
Shots on target
attempts hitting the target
3
5
4
Big chances
clear, should-score chances
3✓
2
2
Box touches
touches in the opponent's box
27✓
17
25
xG per shot
average chance quality per shot
0.15✓
0.13
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
MetricAFCOppseason avg
Possession
share of the ball
48%
52%
53%
Field tilt
share of play in the opponent's half
—
–
—
Progressive passes
passes moving the ball upfield
45
–
52
Final-third entries
moves into the final third
53
60
57
xT (threat created)
danger added by passing moves
2.34
–
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display: 1.30 xGA, below the season average. High regains ran above the norm.
MetricAFCOppseason avg
xGA
quality of chances conceded — lower is better
1.30✓
1.60
1.64
PPDA
how hard Aberdeen pressed — lower is harder
17.1
–
12.8
High regains
balls won high up the pitch
9
–
6
Tackles
tackles made
12
–
17
Interceptions
opponent passes cut out
4
–
7
Opp. box touches
opponent touches in our box — lower is better
17✓
27
24
Green tick = the side on top for that metric (higher or lower as appropriate). The last column is Aberdeen’s average for reference — this season once enough games are played, otherwise last season. Dashes are Aberdeen-only measures.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:W(last 1)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match