Aberdeen
4–1
FT · Win
Dundee FC
1.81xG
-0.08AFC xGD
xG1.89
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Second-half surge
4 goalsafter the break
Aberdeen took over after half-time: 4 of the goals came in the second half.
Standout performer
7.9D. Mitov
D. Mitov ran the show: a 7.9 rating.
Set-piece threat
2set-piece goals
Dead balls did damage: 2 goals from set pieces (1.14 set-piece xG).
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 1.58 · +1.42
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?52% luck · part luck, part skill
About 52% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck, a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.81Dundee FC 1.89GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
18 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.81 xG to 1.89). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.81
1.89
1.22
Shots
18
13
12
Shots on target
8
5
4
Big chances
4
3
2
Box touches
35
35
25
xG per shot
0.10
0.15
0.10
Territory & progression
Territory and possession were about typical for Aberdeen. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
56%
44%
53%
Field tilt
48%
52%
53%
Progressive passes
61
—
52
Final-third entries
57
60
57
xT (threat created)
2.24
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.89 xGA).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.89
1.81
1.64
PPDA
11.9
—
12.8
High regains
4
—
6
Tackles
20
—
17
Interceptions
5
—
7
Opp. box touches
35
35
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
8shots on target
1st of 38 · season best
4big chances
1st of 38 · season best
Form:WWDWW(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)