Aberdeen
0–1
FT · Loss
Celtic
0.88xG
-0.74AFC xGD
xG1.62
Expected points 0.73–1.58
Deserved defeatResult verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?13% luck · mostly down to skill
About 13% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.88Celtic 1.62GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
8 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.62 xG to Aberdeen's 0.88.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.88
1.62
1.22
Shots
8
15
12
Shots on target
4
4
4
Big chances
1
2
2
Box touches
13
35
25
xG per shot
0.11
0.11
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
27%
73%
53%
Field tilt
54%
46%
53%
Progressive passes
22
—
52
Final-third entries
39
70
57
xT (threat created)
0.60
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.62 xGA).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.62
0.88
1.64
PPDA
21.2
—
12.8
High regains
4
—
6
Tackles
16
—
17
Interceptions
9
—
7
Opp. box touches
35
13
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
22progressive passes
37th of 38 · among the worst
Form:WWLDD(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)