St. Johnstone
1–2
FT · Win
Aberdeen
0.81xG
+0.98AFC xGD
xG1.79
Expected points 0.73–2.29
Deserved winMatch in 30 seconds
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage: 1 goal from set pieces (0.35 set-piece xG).
Chance dominance
1.79–0.81xG for–against
Aberdeen created the far better chances: 1.79 xG to 0.81.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.29 · +0.71
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?22% luck · mostly down to skill
About 22% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck, a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample; finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.79St. Johnstone 0.81GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances: 1.79 xG to 0.81, and the bigger ones (4–0 big chances).
MetricAFCOppseason avg
xG
quality of chances created
1.79✓
0.81
1.22
Shots
total attempts
21✓
15
12
Shots on target
attempts hitting the target
6✓
2
4
Big chances
clear, should-score chances
4✓
0
2
Box touches
touches in the opponent's box
25
30
25
xG per shot
average chance quality per shot
0.09✓
0.05
0.10
Territory & progression
Territory and possession were about typical for Aberdeen.
MetricAFCOppseason avg
Possession
share of the ball
49%
51%
53%
Field tilt
share of play in the opponent's half
—
–
—
Progressive passes
passes moving the ball upfield
54
–
52
Final-third entries
moves into the final third
48
82
57
xT (threat created)
danger added by passing moves
2.54
–
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display: 0.81 xGA, below the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 9.4).
MetricAFCOppseason avg
xGA
quality of chances conceded — lower is better
0.81✓
1.79
1.64
PPDA
how hard Aberdeen pressed — lower is harder
9.4
–
12.8
High regains
balls won high up the pitch
3
–
6
Tackles
tackles made
17
–
17
Interceptions
opponent passes cut out
11
–
7
Opp. box touches
opponent touches in our box — lower is better
30
25
24
Green tick = the side on top for that metric (higher or lower as appropriate). The last column is Aberdeen’s average for reference — this season once enough games are played, otherwise last season. Dashes are Aberdeen-only measures.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
21shots
1st of 38 · season best
4big chances
1st of 38 · season best
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match