Aberdeen
1–0
FT · Win
Dundee United
1.41xG
+1.04AFC xGD
xG0.38
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved winMatch in 30 seconds
Controlled the ball
70%possession · 53% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball: 70% possession against a 53% season average.
Standout performer
7.8G. Molloy
G. Molloy ran the show: a 7.8 rating.
Defence locked down
0.38xGA · 1.64 avg
The back line gave almost nothing away: 0.38 xGA against a season average of 1.64.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 3 pts · expected 2.26 · +0.74
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?60% luck · mostly luck
About 60% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck, a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.41Dundee United 0.38GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
12 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances: 1.41 xG to 0.38, and the bigger ones (2–0 big chances).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.41
0.38
1.22
Shots
12
8
12
Shots on target
5
0
4
Big chances
2
0
2
Box touches
29
21
25
xG per shot
0.12
0.05
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
70%
30%
53%
Field tilt
59%
41%
53%
Progressive passes
74
—
52
Final-third entries
86
47
57
xT (threat created)
1.95
—
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display: 0.38 xGA, below the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 10.2).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.38
1.41
1.64
PPDA
10.2
—
12.8
High regains
5
—
6
Tackles
13
—
17
Interceptions
4
—
7
Opp. box touches
21
29
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.38xGA
1st of 38 · season best
Form:WWWWD(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)