Aberdeen
2–2
FT · Draw
Dundee United
1.98xG
+1.45AFC xGD
xG0.53
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
8.5K. Nisbet
K. Nisbet ran the show — a 8.5 rating with 2 goals.
Controlled the ball
73%possession · 53% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball — 73% possession against a 53% season average.
Aggressive pressure
10high regains · 6 avg
A ferocious counter-press — 10 ball recoveries in the final third against a season average of 6.
Result verdict
Unfortunate
Took 1 pt · expected 2.26 · -1.26
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?25% luck · mostly down to skill
About 25% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.98Dundee United 0.53GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
20 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 1.98 xG to 0.53. Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.98
0.53
1.22
Shots
20
11
12
Shots on target
2
3
4
Big chances
1
1
2
Box touches
51
12
25
xG per shot
0.10
0.05
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
73%
27%
53%
Field tilt
68%
32%
53%
Progressive passes
93
—
52
Final-third entries
83
55
57
xT (threat created)
3.74
—
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.53 xGA, below the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 8.9).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.53
1.98
1.64
PPDA
8.9
—
12.8
High regains
10
—
6
Tackles
10
—
17
Interceptions
6
—
7
Opp. box touches
12
51
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
+1.45xGD
1st of 38 · season best
51box touches
1st of 38 · season best
93progressive passes
1st of 38 · season best
20shots
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
68%field tilt
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
1.98xG
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LLWWL(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)