Aberdeen
1–2
FT · LossRoss County
1.55xG
+0.75AFC xGD
xG0.80
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Unfortunate defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Controlled the ball
66%possession · 53% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball — 66% possession against a 53% season average.
Set-piece threat
1set-piece goal
Dead balls did damage — 1 goal from set pieces (0.42 set-piece xG).
Moved it forward
68progressive passes · 52 avg
Sharp forward play — 68 progressive passes against a season average of 52.
Result verdict
Very unfortunate
Took 0 pts · expected 2.26 · -2.26
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?43% luck · part luck, part skill
About 43% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.55Ross County 0.80GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
20 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Aberdeen created the better chances — 1.55 xG to 0.80.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.55
0.80
1.22
Shots
20
9
12
Shots on target
4
4
4
Big chances
1
1
2
Box touches
37
17
25
xG per shot
0.08
0.09
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
66%
34%
53%
Field tilt
62%
38%
53%
Progressive passes
68
—
52
Final-third entries
78
57
57
xT (threat created)
2.53
—
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 0.80 xGA, below the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
0.80
1.55
1.64
PPDA
11.9
—
12.8
High regains
6
—
6
Tackles
15
—
17
Interceptions
3
—
7
Opp. box touches
17
37
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
20shots
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
37box touches
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
62%field tilt
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LDLLL(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)