Ross County
0–1
FT · Win
Aberdeen
1.05xG
-0.70AFC xGD
xG0.35
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Controlled the ball
65%possession · 53% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball: 65% possession against a 53% season average.
Aggressive press
7.8PPDA · 12.8 avg
Aberdeen pressed hard: 7.8 passes allowed per defensive action versus a 12.8 average (lower is more aggressive).
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 1.58 (excl. pen) · +1.42
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?7% luck · mostly down to skill
About 7% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck, a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample; finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. A penalty was left out of the expected-points read, since winning a penalty is not open-play merit.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.35Ross County 1.05GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Open-play chances were finely balanced (0.35 xG to 0.26).
MetricAFCOppseason avg
xG
quality of chances created
0.35
1.05
1.22
Shots
total attempts
9✓
8
12
Shots on target
attempts hitting the target
3
4
4
Big chances
clear, should-score chances
1
1
2
Box touches
touches in the opponent's box
14✓
12
25
xG per shot
average chance quality per shot
0.04
0.13
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
MetricAFCOppseason avg
Possession
share of the ball
65%✓
35%
53%
Field tilt
share of play in the opponent's half
—
–
—
Progressive passes
passes moving the ball upfield
64
–
52
Final-third entries
moves into the final third
61
69
57
xT (threat created)
danger added by passing moves
2.38
–
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display: 1.05 xGA, below the season average. The press was aggressive (PPDA 7.8).
MetricAFCOppseason avg
xGA
quality of chances conceded — lower is better
1.05
0.35
1.64
PPDA
how hard Aberdeen pressed — lower is harder
7.8
–
12.8
High regains
balls won high up the pitch
4
–
6
Tackles
tackles made
14
–
17
Interceptions
opponent passes cut out
15
–
7
Opp. box touches
opponent touches in our box — lower is better
12✓
14
24
Green tick = the side on top for that metric (higher or lower as appropriate). The last column is Aberdeen’s average for reference — this season once enough games are played, otherwise last season. Dashes are Aberdeen-only measures.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0.35xG
37th of 38 · among the worst
Form:WWW(last 3)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.00–0.00 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match