Hibernian
2–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.60xG
-1.12AFC xGD
xG0.48
Expected points 2.26–0.73
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Controlled the ball
62%possession · 53% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball — 62% possession against a 53% season average.
Second best on chances
0.48–1.60xG for–against
The opposition created more — 1.60 xG against Aberdeen's 0.48.
Moved it forward
77progressive passes · 52 avg
Sharp forward play — 77 progressive passes against a season average of 52.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.73 · -0.73
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?49% luck · part luck, part skill
About 49% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.48Hibernian 1.60GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
7 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.60 xG to Aberdeen's 0.48. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.48
1.60
1.22
Shots
7
8
12
Shots on target
3
4
4
Big chances
0
3
2
Box touches
27
12
25
xG per shot
0.07
0.20
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
62%
38%
53%
Field tilt
52%
48%
53%
Progressive passes
77
—
52
Final-third entries
67
59
57
xT (threat created)
1.82
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.60 xGA).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.60
0.48
1.64
PPDA
19.2
—
12.8
High regains
3
—
6
Tackles
10
—
17
Interceptions
3
—
7
Opp. box touches
12
27
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
77progressive passes
3rd of 38 · 3rd best
Form:LLDLL(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)