Celtic
2–2
FT · Draw
Aberdeen
3.21xG
-2.11AFC xGD
xG1.10
Expected points 2.44–0.20
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Second best on chances
1.10–3.21xG for–against
The opposition created more: 3.21 xG against Aberdeen's 1.10.
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 1 pt · expected 0.20 · +0.80
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?54% luck · part luck, part skill
About 54% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck, a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.10Celtic 3.21GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more: 3.21 xG to Aberdeen's 1.10.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.10
3.21
1.22
Shots
8
32
12
Shots on target
4
7
4
Big chances
2
4
2
Box touches
12
48
25
xG per shot
0.14
0.10
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
27%
73%
53%
Field tilt
—
—
—
Progressive passes
21
—
52
Final-third entries
31
73
57
xT (threat created)
0.64
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual: 3.21 xGA, above the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
3.21
1.10
1.64
PPDA
18.7
—
12.8
High regains
4
—
6
Tackles
23
—
17
Interceptions
8
—
7
Opp. box touches
48
12
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
21progressive passes
38th of 38 · season worst
Form:WWWWW(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match