Aberdeen
1–1
FT · DrawSt. Johnstone
0.70xG
-0.64AFC xGD
xG1.35
Expected points 0.73–1.58
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
8.3L. Clarkson
L. Clarkson ran the show — a 8.3 rating with 1 goal.
Aggressive pressure
11high regains · 6 avg
A ferocious counter-press — 11 ball recoveries in the final third against a season average of 6.
Moved it forward
83progressive passes · 52 avg
Sharp forward play — 83 progressive passes against a season average of 52.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 1 pt · expected 0.73 · +0.27
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?50% luck · part luck, part skill
About 50% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.70St. Johnstone 1.35GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
7 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 1.35 xG to Aberdeen's 0.70. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.70
1.35
1.22
Shots
7
6
12
Shots on target
2
3
4
Big chances
1
2
2
Box touches
24
13
25
xG per shot
0.10
0.22
0.10
Territory & progression
Territory and possession were about typical for Aberdeen. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
57%
43%
53%
Field tilt
52%
48%
53%
Progressive passes
83
—
52
Final-third entries
66
67
57
xT (threat created)
2.60
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.35 xGA). The press was aggressive (PPDA 9.9).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.35
0.70
1.64
PPDA
9.9
—
12.8
High regains
11
—
6
Tackles
27
—
17
Interceptions
9
—
7
Opp. box touches
13
24
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
83progressive passes
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
11high regains
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
Form:WLDDL(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)