Kilmarnock
4–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
4.02xG
-3.52AFC xGD
xG0.50
Expected points 2.44–0.20
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Second best on chances
0.50–4.02xG for–against
The opposition created more — 4.02 xG against Aberdeen's 0.50.
Result verdict
Fair result
Took 0 pts · expected 0.20 · -0.20
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?36% luck · part luck, part skill
About 36% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.50Kilmarnock 4.02GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
7 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more — 4.02 xG to Aberdeen's 0.50. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.50
4.02
1.22
Shots
7
24
12
Shots on target
3
8
4
Big chances
0
6
2
Box touches
19
38
25
xG per shot
0.07
0.17
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen ceded territory and saw less of the ball than they normally do.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
53%
47%
53%
Field tilt
41%
59%
53%
Progressive passes
29
—
52
Final-third entries
44
70
57
xT (threat created)
2.16
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual — 4.02 xGA, above the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
4.02
0.50
1.64
PPDA
10.6
—
12.8
High regains
3
—
6
Tackles
21
—
17
Interceptions
4
—
7
Opp. box touches
38
19
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
4.02xGA
38th of 38 · season worst
-3.52xGD
38th of 38 · season worst
41%field tilt
37th of 38 · among the worst
Form:DDLDL(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)