Dundee United
2–1
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.93xG
-0.23AFC xGD
xG1.70
Expected points 1.58–1.58
Deserved defeatMatch in 30 seconds
Controlled the ball
65%possession · 53% avg
Aberdeen dominated the ball — 65% possession against a 53% season average.
Result verdict
Very unfortunate
Took 0 pts · expected 1.58 · -1.58
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?16% luck · mostly down to skill
About 16% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.70Dundee United 1.93GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
20 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.70 xG to 1.93). Output was above Aberdeen's season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.70
1.93
1.22
Shots
20
16
12
Shots on target
4
6
4
Big chances
2
3
2
Box touches
32
23
25
xG per shot
0.09
0.12
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
65%
35%
53%
Field tilt
58%
42%
53%
Progressive passes
44
—
52
Final-third entries
56
58
57
xT (threat created)
3.02
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen conceded a typical amount of danger (1.93 xGA). The press was aggressive (PPDA 9.3).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.93
1.70
1.64
PPDA
9.3
—
12.8
High regains
2
—
6
Tackles
16
—
17
Interceptions
3
—
7
Opp. box touches
23
32
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
20shots
2nd of 38 · 2nd best
2high regains
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:DWLLL(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)