Aberdeen
4–1
FT · Win
Motherwell
1.58xG
+0.37AFC xGD
xG1.21
Expected points 1.58–0.73
Tight gameMatch in 30 seconds
Standout performer
8.5K. Nisbet
K. Nisbet ran the show — a 8.5 rating with 2 goals.
Set-piece threat
2set-piece goals
Dead balls did damage — 2 goals from set pieces (0.10 set-piece xG).
Clinical finishing
4 from 1.58goals from xG
The finishing ran hot — 4 scored from 1.58 xG worth of chances.
Result verdict
Fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 1.58 · +1.42
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?44% luck · part luck, part skill
About 44% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck — a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample — finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 1.58Motherwell 1.21GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shot Map
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
15 shots
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
Chances were finely balanced (1.58 xG to 1.21).
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
1.58
1.21
1.22
Shots
15
10
12
Shots on target
8
2
4
Big chances
2
2
2
Box touches
30
13
25
xG per shot
0.11
0.12
0.10
Territory & progression
Aberdeen controlled territory above their usual level, camping in the opposition half.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
62%
38%
53%
Field tilt
56%
44%
53%
Progressive passes
58
—
52
Final-third entries
69
41
57
xT (threat created)
1.75
—
1.95
Without the ball
A controlled defensive display — 1.21 xGA, below the season average. High regains ran above the norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
1.21
1.58
1.64
PPDA
18.1
—
12.8
High regains
9
—
6
Tackles
11
—
17
Interceptions
3
—
7
Opp. box touches
13
30
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Player performance
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
8shots on target
1st of 38 · season best
Form:WWLDD(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
After scoring first: 14-2-2 (18 games)