Aberdeen
3–2
FT · Win
Heart of Midlothian
0.69xG
-1.33AFC xGD
xG2.02
Expected points 0.73–2.29
Fortunate winMatch in 30 seconds
Clinical finishing
3 from 0.69goals from xG
The finishing ran hot: 3 scored from 0.69 xG worth of chances.
Second best on chances
0.69–2.02xG for–against
The opposition created more: 2.02 xG against Aberdeen's 0.69.
Result verdict
Very fortunate
Took 3 pts · expected 0.73 · +2.27
robbedfairrode their luck
How much of this was luck?78% luck · mostly luck
About 78% of the gap between the goals and the chances came down to luck, a kind bounce or the keeper’s day, the sort of thing that won’t repeat every week. The rest came from things Aberdeen control: how cleanly they hit their shots and their own goalkeeping.
One match is a small sample; finishing and goalkeeping swing single games. Expected points are calibrated on Aberdeen’s own five seasons of xGD.
Match Story
Aberdeen 0.69Heart of Midlothian 2.02GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
How the match was won or lost
Chance creation
The opponent created more: 2.02 xG to Aberdeen's 0.69. Output was below the season norm.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xG
0.69
2.02
1.22
Shots
11
11
12
Shots on target
3
3
4
Big chances
0
5
2
Box touches
31
19
25
xG per shot
0.06
0.18
0.10
Territory & progression
Territory and possession were about typical for Aberdeen. Ball progression was sharp.
AFC
Opp
Avg
Possession
56%
44%
53%
Field tilt
—
—
—
Progressive passes
64
—
52
Final-third entries
58
72
57
xT (threat created)
2.30
—
1.95
Without the ball
Aberdeen gave up more than usual: 2.02 xGA, above the season average.
AFC
Opp
Avg
xGA
2.02
0.69
1.64
PPDA
10.5
—
12.8
High regains
6
—
6
Tackles
16
—
17
Interceptions
15
—
7
Opp. box touches
19
31
24
Aberdeen’s value is green when it beats the season average in the direction that helps — so lower xGA, PPDA and opposition box touches read as good.
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
A middle-of-the-road performance by this season’s standards — no category stood out as a high or low.
Form:WWWWW(last 5)
Home this season: 10-4-5, 1.49–1.37 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match