St. Mirren
1–0
FT · Loss
Aberdeen
1.22xG
-0.75AFC xGD
xG0.47
Expected points 2.29–0.72
Deserved defeatThe verdict
Event data: Opta
A harsh defeat on the balance of chances.
St. Mirren generated more attacking volume — 10 shots and 17 box touches to Aberdeen's 7 and 23.
Result model · all chances
Expected points 0.72 – 2.29
From the full xG (0.47–1.22), penalty included.
Performance model · excl. penalty
Expected 0.72 pts
From non-penalty xG (0.47–1.22). Took 0.
Some misfortune.Aberdeen deserved more than they got from the chances created.
The match in three battles
Chance qualitySTRONG OPPONENT EDGE
0.47 – 1.22
Expected goals · Aberdeen – St. Mirren
AFC xG baseline: 1.22
0.07 – 0.12
xG per shot
7 – 10
shots
St. Mirren created the higher-quality chances per shot.
Territory & progressionEVEN
2.76 – 2.98
Expected threat created · Aberdeen – St. Mirren
AFC xT baseline: 1.95
51% – 49%
field tilt
59 – 66
final-third entries
Territory was relatively even, but Aberdeen's passing generated more threat than usual.
Defensive resistanceABERDEEN EDGE
1.22 xGA
chances conceded
0.42 better than AFC baseline (1.64)
17 (base 24)
St. Mirren box touches
0.12
xG per St. Mirren shot
A resilient defensive display — chances conceded were below Aberdeen's usual level.
xG timeline
Aberdeen 0.47St. Mirren 1.22GoalAberdeen above · opponent below · shaded = sustained pressure
13%
30%
57%
Match odds from simulating these shots at their own xG (20,000 runs) — for fun, not a prediction: it scores what should have happened, not what did.
Each step is a shot; the line climbs by that shot's xG. Steeper, sustained climbs (shaded) mark spells of real pressure.
Shots
St. Mirren Shot Map
1 goal: 1 open play
Goal
Saved
Blocked
Post
Off target
10 shots
Shot mix & shots over time
0shots · 0 on target
By situation
Every shot in one bucket only. Open play covers unassisted and assisted attempts; counter is a fast break; free kicks, direct set pieces and throw-in routines are grouped because there are rarely enough of any one of them in a single match to read separately. A mix heavy on corners and free kicks with few open-play shots means the side needed a dead ball to get near the goal.
Shots over timefull match · drag to focus a period
Aberdeen 0St. Mirren 10
0'HTFT
Five-minute buckets — a side takes roughly a dozen shots a match, so the two-minute bars used for passing would be almost all gaps. Use the buttons for the common windows, or drag across the chart for anything else.
In context
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | SPFL average 66 team-games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 7 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 14.8 | below usual · 25 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 25 of 190 lower | |||||
| Shots in the box | 5 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 10.2 | below usual · 36 of 190 lower |
| below usual · 36 of 190 lower | |||||
marker = 5-year mean
Passing & build-up
Build-Up Play
Where Aberdeen's passes were and how they progressed the ball
Pass Territory
49.0%
31.8%
19.2%
Own Half
Middle
Final 3rd
Season avg: 46.2% own half
GK Distribution
GK Long Ball %
32.6%avg 60.4%
GK Total Passes
46avg 31
Build-Up Quality
Own-Half Accuracy
93.4%avg 86.0%
Progression
Progressive Passes
54avg 49
Directness
62.4%avg 57.9%
Season avg
Above avg
Below avg
In context · full match
| Aberdeen | This match | This season 5 games | 5-year 190 games | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passes | 432 | 376.8 | 392.4 | about normal · 114 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 114 of 190 lower | ||||
| Pass accuracy % | 79.6 | 75.4 | 72.2 | above usual · 158 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 158 of 190 lower | ||||
| Passes into the final third | 33 | 27.2 | 25.2 | above usual · 149 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 149 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls | 65 | 53.2 | 57.8 | above usual · 144 of 190 lower |
| above usual · 144 of 190 lower | ||||
| Long balls, % of passes | 15 | 14.4 | 15.6 | about normal · 93 of 190 lower |
| about normal · 93 of 190 lower | ||||
marker = 5-year mean
Historical Context
Games at this ground, and how this match compares to the season so far
At St. Mirren — every meeting on record
1-2-6(9 games)
1.05–1.48avg xG (n=8)
LWLLDLLLD
This match vs season so far
37 comparable games — each metric says how many of them actually have that stat.
xG
0.47avg 1.24
3rd worst of 38 · Highest 2.78, 30 October 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.29, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
xGA
1.22avg 1.65
14th best of 38 · Highest 4.02, 26 December 2024 (0-4) · Lowest 0.38, 26 October 2024 (1-0)
Possession
62%avg 53%
9th best of 38 · Highest 74%, 25 January 2025 (0-3) · Lowest 27%, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Shots
7.0avg 12.2
5th worst of 38 · Highest 21.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 6.0, 15 January 2025 (0-3)
Shots on target
0.0avg 3.9
worst of 38 · Highest 8.0, 9 November 2024 (4-1) · Lowest 1.0, 12 January 2025 (0-0)
Big chances
0.0avg 1.7
10th worst of 38 · Highest 4.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 0.0, 6 October 2024 (3-2)
Box touches
23.0avg 25.0
16th worst of 38 · Highest 51.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 8.0, 25 February 2025 (1-5)
Final third entries
59.0avg 56.8
18th best of 38 · Highest 86.0, 26 October 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 31.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Key passes
6.0avg 9.2
12th worst of 38 · Highest 19.0, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 4.0, 19 October 2024 (2-2)
Corners
11.0avg 5.9
4th best of 38 · Highest 14.0, 2 March 2025 (2-2) · Lowest 1.0, 29 December 2024 (0-1)
Tackles
16.0avg 17.2
19th worst of 38 · Highest 29.0, 12 January 2025 (0-0) · Lowest 9.0, 26 April 2025 (1-0)
Interceptions
8.0avg 6.5
10th best of 38 · Highest 15.0, 31 August 2024 (1-0) · Lowest 2.0, 22 February 2025 (1-0)
Counter-press rate
5%avg 7%
9th worst of 38 · Highest 11%, 5 August 2024 (2-1) · Lowest 1%, 4 December 2024 (0-1)
avg
Above avg
Below avg
Where this performance ranks
Against Aberdeen’s other matches this season — only the standout highs and lows.
0shots on target
38th of 38 · season worst
0.47xG
36th of 38 · among the worst
Form:DWWDW(last 5)
Away this season: 5-4-10, 0.95–1.91 xG avg
Detailed stats not available for this match